Analysis of market changes and economic operation of machine tool industry

In the December 23rd Meeting of the China machine tool industry association seventh session of the five standing director (enlarged) meeting, executive vice president and Secretary General of the association Chen Huiren to the General Assembly entitled "analysis of market changes and economic operation of the machine tool industry report, comprehensive national, industry statistics and customs import and export data, this the recent changes in the market and economy, the basic situation of next year is estimated, and share their views on the future of the industry with all entrepreneurs. The full report is as follows.

Comprehensive national, industry statistics and customs import and export data, from the change of market and economy, the next year the basic estimation, attention and views the three part introduces Chinese machine tool industry market changes and analysis of economic operation situation.

Market changes and economic operation

2015 is the fifth year of the machine tool industry market and economic operation into the downstream channel, compared with previous years, the downward pressure on the industry to bear the greater intensity, a wider scope, the overall situation is grim.

1, 2015 industry boom index

From the beginning of 2014, the association tried to use climate index analysis method (similar to the PMI index) to specifically assess China"s machine tool manufacturing industry boom state, in order to judge the situation for the operators of enterprises in the industry to provide the necessary reference for business decision. To this end, we conduct a sample survey of the industry business operators, and the use of statistical analysis of the results of the statistical processing, thus forming a machine tool industry boom index. By the end of 2015, we have to focus on the industry more than and 200 companies to issue a questionnaire, a total of 81 industry companies returned to the questionnaire. Return the questionnaire of enterprise distribution (sample distribution) are as follows: from the industry, metal cutting machine tools, metal forming machine tools, CNC system and functional components, tools and casting machinery enterprises accounted for 52% respectively, 20%, 13%, 11% and 4%; from the enterprise ownership, state-owned and collective owned, private holdings and other foreign and Hong Kong and Macao, holding the number of enterprises accounted for 45%, 31%, 17%, 7%. The distribution of sample enterprises has considerable coverage and representativeness.

The following analysis from different angles in 2015 and the same period last year, the industry boom index and contrast. 2015 overall industry boom index was only 34.5%, well below the dividing line of 50%, and significantly lower than in 2014, compared with 8.8 percentage points.

From the point of view of the degree of prosperity of the industry, in 2015 the industry boom index was lower than in 2014. The metal cutting machine is 36%, compared with 2014 declined slightly by 3 percentage points; metal forming machine tool was 33.3%, compared with 2014 dropped 30.4 percentage points (47.7% drop); tools for 21.4%, compared with 2014 dropped 29.3 percentage points (57.8% drop); function parts and NC system is 31%. Compared with 2014 dropped 15.8 percentage points (by 33.8%). The boom index decreased from high to low sort were metal forming machine tools (30.4 percentage points), tools (29.3 points), functional components and CNC system (15.8 points) and the metal cutting machine tool (3 points). More than the sub industry index and the basic situation of the industry in line with the actual operation of the market and economic trends.

From the perspective of different ownership nature of the enterprise boom situation, in 2015 the nature of various types of ownership of the enterprise boom index were lower than in 2014. Among them, the state-owned and collective owned enterprises was 36.7%, compared to 2014 decreased by 9.8 percentage points; private holding enterprises is 34.5%, compared with 2014 dropped 22.4 percentage points; the foreign and Hong Kong and Macao holding enterprises was 23.9%, compared with 2014 dropped 43.3 percentage points; the ownership of enterprises is 32.6%, with basically the same as 2014. The boom index decreased from high to low ranking are foreign and Hong Kong and Macao holding enterprises (43.3 percentage points), private enterprises (22.4 percentage points), state-owned and collective owned enterprises (9.8 percentage points), and other ownership enterprises (0.1 percentage points). Among them, the foreign investment and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan enterprises holding the decline of the magnitude of the special attention.

From the point of view of the basic elements of business management, in 2015, in addition to environmental factors, all the basic operating factors of the boom index were lower than in 2014. Among them, the order is only 17.8%, compared with 2014 dropped 21.6 percentage points; business is 31.2%, compared with 2014 declined slightly by 2.6 percentage points; the cost is 47.4%, compared with 2014 increased by 2.8 percentage points (only has picked up the index); 57.8% (the only environment for the expansion of the index), compared with 2014 a decline of 4.5 percentage points. It is not difficult to see from the sub index, the lack of orders is the impact of the industry"s most prominent contradiction, and the specific value of the order index (17.8%) reflects the order of the boom has been extremely depressed state.

The expected index for 2016 was 38.2%, compared with 2014, a significant decline of 9.4 percentage points, reflecting the industry generally optimistic about the situation next year is not optimistic.

2, market changes and basic characteristics

Since the global financial crisis, the economic operation of the domestic consumer market and the machine tool industry has experienced change radically, called the ups and downs of the process. Below we choose three typical industries from a brief review of the two different perspectives of this process.

First of all, is the metal processing machine tool consumer market change process. This process is divided into two stages, namely, 2010,